A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
