Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
